Italy’s Path To A Decarbonized Economy

Italy is the EU’s third economy and the third largest GHG emitter in volume. Of note is that GHG emissions per capita are below EU average.

If the EU Green Deal is therefore to succeed, it requires notably Italy to be committed and to deliver on its part.

Italy is on track to meet the -40% target by 2030. Reaching -55% will require additional efforts. The sanitary, political and economic contexts are difficult.

• Italy’s macroeconomic situation is a daunting challenge: public debt to GDP is now 160%, 2020 was marked by a sharp recession at –8.9%. Only +3/4% growth is expected for 2021, with rising unemployment (10% in general, 31% youth unemployment rate).
• On the structural side:

o Italy has over 20% of the industry in its GDP, just over Germany and two times more than France. Yet highly concentrated in the north.

o Population is declining: 1.3 children per woman, emigration.

o Two times more spending on pensions than the OECD average.

o Key is competitiveness: with the euro, impossible to do devaluations, so what matters is to secure competitive energy, raise productivity or limit the growth in salaries. Very challenging but progress is seen as PSV gas prices…